Card pack statistics


Info

Statistics for card packs are a means of observing the rarity drop rates for cards from card packs Card pack concept art Card packs are items that players can open to acquire cards for filling a player s collection. Only card packs for the current Standard format sets are available for purchase in the hearthstone , determining the opportunity cost of whether a player should continue to buy The Goblins vs Gnomes tab of the Cards pane The Adventure pane The Heroes pane The Shop is the in-game facility for purchasing new card packs and wings of adventures. Purchases may be made in hearthstone or not buy packs.

NB: For inclusion into this article, studies recording the rarity drops of card packs should have a reasonably large sample size and should have a citable reference from a reputable source.

Notes

Videos

Pity Timer

There is strong evidence that a "Pity Timer" exists, which defines a maximum number of packs that a player opens before guaranteeing the next Rare/Epic/Legendary card. This Pity Timer counter is tracked individually for each store-bought expansion set, including Classic set The card set interface Card sets are categories into which collectible cards are divided, reflecting how they can be obtained, and determining whether they are eligible for use in Standard format. Card set does not hearthstone .

Expected dust value

According to the below meta-study`s data tabulated under the "Golden cards" section, the average card pack has a disenchanting Crafting mode, in Standard format mode The crafting system is an element of Hearthstone that allows players to directly create new cards. It can be accessed through the My Collection screen. Crafting consumes Arcane Dust hearthstone value of 98.25 Arcane Dust Crafting mode, in Standard format mode The crafting system is an element of Hearthstone that allows players to directly create new cards. It can be accessed through the My Collection screen. Crafting consumes Arcane Dust hearthstone . Each card has an average disenchanting value of 19.65 Arcane Dust.

An in-depth statistical analysis of how much dust you can expect to get from a given pack opening is available here: https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3bqvxx/have_you_ever_wondered_how_much_value_you_can_get/

Meta-study

The following numbers combine data from several other studies on this page. Since the numbers provided by each study are relatively similar, this is mostly for the convenience of a single overview of the statistics, as well as improved accuracy in the rarer cases. The original studies can be found in later sections.

Currently included studies:

  • Steve Marinconz (Jun. 2014)
  • E. R. Kjellgren (Aug. 2014)
  • Amaz (Feb. 2015)
  • HearthSim (Aug. 2015)

This produces a total sample size of 27,868 card packs, describing 139,340 cards in total.

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage of total 71.65% 22.84% 4.42% 1.10%
Count per 27,868 packs 99,836 31,821 6,152 1,531
Probability of at least 1 per pack 99.81% 72.64% 20.21% 5.37%

Golden cards

Golden card data gathered prior to The Grand Tournament "From east to west, heroes are sent, seeking glory in the greatest of events... there are knights on noble steeds; those who will bring them to their knees; there are monsters to test their mettle hearthstone show significant differences from that gathered after. For this reason the below information is currently taken solely from the most recent study: HearthSim (Aug. 2015).

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.84% 22.87% 4.28% 1.01%
Regular 96.98% 70.36% 21.60% 4.08% 0.94%
Golden 3.02% 1.48% 1.27% 0.19% 0.07%
Count per 15,109 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 54,271 17,276 3,232 766
Regular 73,266 53,151 16,319 3,086 710
Golden 2,279 1,120 957 146 56

The following table describes the likelihood of getting at least 1 golden card in a given pack.

Common Rare Epic Legendary Any rarity
Probability of at least 1 golden per pack 7.4% 6.35% 0.95% 0.35% 15.084%

The following table describes the percentage of cards of each rarity which will be golden.

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.06% 5.54% 4.52% 7.31%
Rough probability 1 in 48.5 1 in 18.1 1 in 22.1 1 in 13.7

Jun. 5, 2014: Steve Marinconz

On Jun. 5th 2014 Steve Marinconz published the following results in an article on Kotaku.com. The data was collected by aggregating the results of numerous card pack opening videos found online, with a total of 1,000 packs. The study used only videos filmed in the last two months.

As well as the chance of each card being of a specific rarity, Marinconz also calculated the probability of finding at least one card of each rarity in any given card pack.

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage of total 71.30% 23.10% 4.30% 1.30%
Probability of at least 1 per pack 99.81% 73.11% 19.73% 6.33%
Count per 1,000 packs 3565 1155 215 65

Based upon this data, Marinconz` provided some interesting `fun facts`. While these are based on the results of this single, relatively small study, the closeness of the study`s results to those of other and larger studies suggests that the below information should still be relatively accurate, at least for the lower rarities.

  • The chances of getting a pack with any 5 legendary cards is one in a million
  • The chances of getting a pack with any 5 golden legendary cards is 1 in 3.2 billion
  • There`s a 0.04% probability of getting 2 legendaries in a single pack
  • The probability of getting a pack with only one common card is about ~0.80%
  • There`s a 16.26% probability of getting a pack with any golden card
  • Only 2.19% of common cards were golden, while 7.69% of legendaries were
  • The average $50 purchase of 40 packs will be worth about 3,600 Arcane Dust
  • The most common distribution was a `4100` - 4 commons and 1 rare - accounting for 61% of packs opened
  • The second most common distribution was a `3200` - 3 commons and 2 rares - accounting for 12.2% of packs opened

Aug. 2014: E. R. Kjellgren

In Aug. 2014 E. R. Kjellgren published an investigation into the rarities of cards found in card packs. This was achieved by collecting user data from forums regarding the contents of 11,359 different card packs. The author notes that the investigation suffered from two main problems: the information collected was anonymous and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed; and the sample size, while adequate for the lower rarities, is still smaller than might be desired for the higher rarities. Kjellgren also divided rarities into golden and regular versions.

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.45% 22.76% 4.59% 1.19%
Regular 96.74% 69.98% 21.39% 4.28% 1.08%
Golden 3.26% 1.47% 1.37% 0.31% 0.11%
Count per 11,359 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 40,581 12,928 2,608 678
Regular 54,942 39,746 12,148 2,433 615
Golden 1,853 835 780 175 63

The data showed golden cards to be on average around 30 times less common than regular cards. Be that as it may, the proportion of golden and regular versions varied substantially by rarity. The author also notes that the sample sizes for the higher golden rarities are too small to be considered conclusive.

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.10% 6.42% 7.19% 10.24%
Rough probability 1 in 48 1 in 16 1 in 14 1 in 10

Feb. 12, 2015: Amaz opens 400 GVG Packs

Sources: @@@#@@@YouTube(youtube.com)###@### - Reddit

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 70.95% 23.10% 4.85% 1.10%
Regular 96.70% 69.50% 21.60% 4.60% 1.00%
Golden 3.30% 1.45% 1.50% 0.25% 0.10%
Count per 400 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 1,419 462 97 22
Regular 1,934 1,390 432 92 20
Golden 66 29 30 5 2

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.09% 6.94% 5.43% 9.09%
Rough probability 1 in 47.9 1 in 14.4 1 in 18.4 1 in 11.0

Aug. 29, 2015: HearthSim compiles 15,109 TGT Packs

Sources: Reddit (initial post) - Reddit (update) - HearthSim - Raw CSV data

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.84% 22.87% 4.28% 1.01%
Regular 96.98% 70.36% 21.60% 4.08% 0.94%
Golden 3.02% 1.48% 1.27% 0.19% 0.07%
Count per 15,109 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 54,271 17,276 3,232 766
Regular 73,266 53,151 16,319 3,086 710
Golden 2,279 1,120 957 146 56

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.06% 5.54% 4.52% 7.31%
Rough probability 1 in 48.5 1 in 18.1 1 in 22.1 1 in 13.7

Apr. 28, 2016: Kripparian opens 713 Old Gods Packs

Sources: Youtube - Raw data

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.16% 23.06% 4.71% 1.07%
Regular 96.69% 69.57% 21.74% 4.43% 0.95%
Golden 3.31% 1.60% 1.32% 0.28% 0.11%
Count per 713 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 2,537 822 168 38
Regular 3,447 2,480 775 158 34
Golden 118 57 47 10 4

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.25% 5.72% 5.95% 10.53%
Rough probability 1 in 44.4 1 in 17.5 1 in 16.8 1 in 9.5

Apr. 28, 2016: Amaz opens 413 Old Gods Packs

Sources: Youtube - Raw data

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 72.30% 22.38% 4.26% 1.07%
Regular 96.66% 70.65% 21.02% 4.02% 0.97%
Golden 3.34% 1.65% 1.36% 0.24% 0.10%
Count per 413 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 1,493 462 88 22
Regular 1,996 1,459 434 83 20
Golden 69 34 28 5 2

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.28% 6.06% 5.68% 9.09%
Rough probability 1 in 43.9 1 in 16.5 1 in 17.6 1 in 11.0

Dec. 1, 2016: Kripparian opens 896 Gadgetzan Packs (Before Tri-Class Bug Hotfix)

Sources: YouTubeTechnology company - Raw data

Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.63% 23.06% 4.31% 1.00%
Regular 96.63% 69.98% 21.74% 4.04% 0.87%
Golden 3.37% 1.65% 1.32% 0.27% 0.13%
Count per 896 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 3,209 1,033 193 45
Regular 4,329 3,135 974 181 39
Golden 151 74 59 12 6

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.31% 5.71% 6.22% 13.33%
Rough probability 1 in 43.3 1 in 17.5 1 in 16.1 1 in 7.5

Dec. 1-2, 2016: Kripparian opens 450 Gadgetzan Packs (After Tri-Class Bug Hotfix)

Sources: YouTube (end of video, first 300 packs) - Raw data

  • The average card`s dust value is 21.00 dust. The average pack`s dust value is 105.
  • YouTube video should include the first 300 of the pack openings. The last 150 pack openings were opened the day after the YouTube video was created.
  • Data was recorded by watching the original two Twitch VODs, not the YouTube video.
Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 70.93% 23.25% 4.71% 1.11%
Regular 96.58% 69.29% 21.78% 4.49% 1.02%
Golden 3.42% 1.64% 1.47% 0.22% 0.09%
Count per 450 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 1,596 523 106 25
Regular 2,173 1,559 490 101 23
Golden 77 37 33 5 2

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.32% 6.31% 4.72% 8.00%
Rough probability 1 in 43.1 1 in 15.8 1 in 21.2 1 in 12.5

Apr. 6, 2017: Kripparian opens 1101 Journey to Un`Goro Packs

Sources: Twitch VOD (will eventually be deleted) - Raw data

  • The average card`s dust value is 21.57 dust. The average pack`s dust value is 107.86.
  • The data shows that golden Rares, all Epics, and all Legendary cards appear more frequently in Journey to Un`Goro when compared to the data in HearthSim`s Aug. 2015 study for The Grand Tournament.
  • The data shown here is somewhat similar to the data gathered during Whispers of the Old Gods, with the exception of golden Rares appearing more in Journey to Un`Goro than in Whispers of the Old Gods.
  • Data was recorded by watching the original Twitch VOD.
  • Refer to Kripp`s YouTube channel for video footage of the card pack openings when the Twitch video eventually gets deleted.
Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.61% 22.52% 4.64% 1.24%
Regular 96.64% 70.14% 20.98% 4.40% 1.13%
Golden 3.36% 1.47% 1.54% 0.24% 0.11%
Count per 1101 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 3,942 1240 255 68
Regular 5,320 3,861 1155 242 62
Golden 185 81 85 13 6

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.05% 6.85% 5.10% 8.82%
Rough probability 1 in 48.8 1 in 14.6 1 in 19.6 1 in 11.3

Apr. 8, 2017: N. Millar opens 1256 Journey to Un`Goro Packs

Sources: YouTube - Raw data

  • The average card`s dust value is 20.88 dust. The average pack`s dust value is 104.38.
  • Data was recorded by watching the YouTube video.
Percentage of total
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 71.29% 23.15% 4.51% 1.05%
Regular 96.50% 69.67% 21.67% 4.20% 0.96%
Golden 3.50% 1.62% 1.48% 0.30% 0.10%
Count per 1256 packs
Common Rare Epic Legendary
All 4,477 1,454 283 66
Regular 6,060 4,375 1,361 264 60
Golden 220 102 93 19 6

Percentage of cards of each rarity that are golden:

Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage golden 2.28% 6.40% 6.71% 9.09%
Rough probability 1 in 43.9 1 in 15.6 1 in 14.9 1 in 11.0